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Unless the dogs come out and bark, should be a quiet Saturday

 

It may be the most tense time of the year for college football fans as a loss in November has often resulted in the end of your BCS Bowl aspirations, but you wouldn’t know it by this weekends schedule as three of the top four BCS teams have scrimmages against schools not in the top 25. The one exception is TCU who was on the other side of coin last year as they tried to derail Utah’s bid for an unbeaten season. This year it’s the Utes that are playing the roll of spoiler and trying to become the Longhorn’s new best friend by taking the 4^th ranked Frogs out of the mix. Meanwhile Florida gets the Head Ball Coach and the other USC, Bama gets 4-5 Miss St., and Texas gets the powerhouse Baylor Bears. It doesn’t even make good late night TV unless there is a sleeping dog waiting to pull off the biggest upset of not only the season but in recent years. The game that was previously slated as the game of the week, and the year in the Big-10 OSU/PSU has turned out to be uneventful outside of the conference interest. Iowa’s collapse last week means the winner does get to take a trip out to Pasadena, just a week before they expected to be there at the start of the season. Well, the one thing that college football, and the BCS for that matter always manages to do is keep us guessing and unless something extraordinary happens, our questions will have to wait for next week.

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Iowa finally has to ‘pay the piper’

 

The Iowa Hawkeyes have been living la vida loca trailing in 7 of 8 games at half-time but still posting an undefeated 9-0 record, until today when Northwestern handed the Hawks their first loss of the year, knocking them out of the Big-10 race and BCS Championship game all at once. It was the same ol’ story for Iowa with way too many turnovers, and the huge loss of Stanzi just before half to an injury (from which he would not return) was too much to overcome. So now the game later between OSU and PSU should be for all of the marbles in the big-10, and the dream season Iowa is over.

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BCS Contenders take the afternoon off while the SEC West is decided  

After three consecutive weeks of huge impact games in college football, the teams fighting for the ‘elite eight’ spots in the BCS get a breather before heading for the home stretch. Florida gets 2-7 Vandy in the swamp, Texas host 5-3 UCF, Iowa host mighty Nortwestern (5-3), and Cincinnati has a very emotionally unstable 4-4 UCONN team coming to town for a visit. So don’t expect any shakeups in those matchups even though all bets are off in any game Iowa plays, but for the most part this will be good week for the schools to fine tune, rest up, or get those pesky suspensions out of the way before the curtail holiday and rivalry games. Amidst all of our presumptions is one of the biggest games on the year in the SEC which will decide the SEC West representative in the SEC Championship game and continues the series of BCS elimination games as #9 LSU travels to #3 Alabama. The loser is surely out of the NGC race and possibly a BCS game in general. Conversely, the winner solidifies their BCS merits and is almost assured of a spot in the final eight. Even with that as a given, it means even more for the Tide, as win puts them one game away from the big prize, a birth in the National Championship Game, and will also give them an opportunity to return the favor to Texas, who “leaped frogged” them on a Saturday where both teams won. On the national scale it almost assures that the winner of the SEC will not have a loss and close the door on the chance of a non-BCS team sneaking in the back door, and thus leaving all of the pressure on Texas to walk their own path to Pasadena. The Big-10 clash between Ohio St. and Penn St. that was on everyone’s calendar has lost its luster for those outside the conference as both former BCS place holders now come in at #16 and #11 respectively, with the automatic bid the only keeping them in the mix. Who do you think will slip out of the final 8 by the end of the year? Let us know here and in any of the quick links:

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Now things REALLY get interesting as the sky begins to clear 

Now we reached the point of the year where the pollsters (both human and computer) actually pay attention to how the games are being played not just the final score the next day, as we see movement in the bottle neck that are the final eight spots even if both teams come away with a W.  This week it appears Pete Carol’s lobbying has made an impact as although all 3 teams won, USC jumped over TCU and Boise St. to move up to 5 in the BCS. That’s huge because it’s impossible for both Bama and Florida to finish winless so that leaves Texas, Iowa and SC to fight for the a spot in final. Texas only has Ok. State and the B-12 championship game where they’ll probably see 3-loss K-Sate so one spot belongs to Texas. You have to figure the SEC winner will take the other unless Florida gets upset in the World’s Biggest Cocktail Party then wins the SEC Championship. Bama’ still has LSU to deal with and an NCG so it is possible that both SEC teams could find themselves with one loss and in the mix with everyone else. Lastly, Iowa still has to go to Horseshoe but beyond that there is no one between them and the goal line. Who do you think will be the last two standing? Let us know here and in the NCAA chat rooms and team rooms.

Or Post your opinion on the blogs here.

 

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BCS picks up where it left off last year, with controversy  

The BCS Pool is finally out and although most are content with their position and the possibilities, but like every year, some are unhappy as they can do the math and calculate their chances of climbing are slim. It seems like this year most of the top schools have ad to deal with either losing or playing with an injured QB, the top of the polls also represent who has dealt with the adversity the best, here’s our assessment of the BCS first poll;

Florida – Can’t really argue with this pick have dominated since the season ended last year and although Tebow has been banged up, perhaps not as bad as Bradford or Barkely, but they still have managed to remain unbeaten, doing what they had to do to survive and advance. The knock on Florida is that they are not even in the top 40 for passing yards and are 19^th in total offense.

Alabama – The top team in the AP Poll that many believe is the best in the country, rank 7^th in offense but surprisingly don’t have a defense ranked in the top 40. Fortunately, they have their toughest games prior to the SEC championship at home as they take on a much improved Tennessee, then LSU.

So, as we’ve stated on previous post, the loser of the SEC title game will get the version of a double play as in all probability the late season loss coupled with lack of interest in a “let’s run it back” immediate rematch, means the SEC Championship game loser will be playing for 3^rd place and the winner goes to the NCG as the favorite.   

Texas – Didn’t have to go through any QB issues thus far and won the Red River Shootout and now just Ok State stands in the way of a trip to the Big-12 Championship Game. Where they will probably play Kansas for the 2^nd time only the Jayhawks won’t be ranked and that will cause Texas to lose ground in the BCS Polls but not enough to drop out of the NCG so the table is set for the Horns’, winout and your in. 

Boise St. – What can you say besides they have one game left on their schedule against a team with a winning record, at home 11/14 vs. Idaho. Although they’re looking good right now, that will come back to haunt them as they slide down the BCS slope as slowly their strength of schedule gets more watered down. The only question is as it appears there will be some 2-loss teams in the BCS do  they drop below them? We don’t think so, expect to see the smurfs playing in 2010. 

Cincinnati – The lone representative of Big East in the BCS Mix and soon to be the only Big East team in the top 25, still has to hold their mud against Pitt and WV then we’ll see how high they can climb as one of the only unbeaten teams left in the BCS. An impressive victory over then unbeaten USF brought the nationwide attention they needed but is it too little too late? 

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Are the 'Tide and Gators (and BCS) heading for a train wreck? 

Although Tim Tebow was cleared to play hours before the FLA/LSU game on Saturday, he clearly was not the t-squared we had seen in the past. His one TD pass was enough however to push the Gators past the Tigers 13-3 in front of a record crowd of better than 93k. Unless you were a fan of defense the was the most disappointing, lackluster matchup of top 5 teams since Ohio State got run out of the NCG. LSU’s futility on offense (1-9 on 3^rd downs, 162 total yards) was the story of the day and now the lingering question is weather you can credit the Gator D or is LSU over-hyped? The Gator D will be tested again as high octane offense of Arkansas comes to town. Meanwhile LSU isn’t completely out of the mix as they only drop down to number 10, and all eyes are now on the 11/7 date with Bama.

 

Speaking of Alabama, who very well may be the ‘peoples champion’ as the best team in the nation, easily disposed of #20 Ole Miss, leading 16-0 before finishing up 22-3. Similar to the afore mentioned SEC marquis game, the Tide silenced the Rebels holding them to 212 total yards and 0-9 on 3^rd down. Bama gets the leap over Texas in the AP poll, stealing 10 of the Gators first place votes in the process, but still sit at number 3 in the USA Today poll.

 

This brings up the question, if both Bama and Florida run the table and meet in the SEC Championship game, what do you do with the loser? Under the Ohio St./Michigan precedent, where it’s assumed that the country doesn’t want to see a rematch, do you bring in a Texas, USC, Va Tech to take on the SEC Champ? Would that produce a game with two best teams in the nation? Will it finally force the BCS to make changes? Let us know here and in the NCAA chat rooms and team rooms.  

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Elite fraternity membership is decreasing rapidly  

Although the exclusive ‘members only’ frat “Phi Beta Unbeaten” is seeing its membership dwindling, and it’s looking like their may not be any remaining members come December, no member were expelled last weekend. However the one member that will be talked about for the rest of the year, particularly if they do remain unbeaten, are the LSU Tigers as they were the benefactors of perhaps the worst arbitrary call in the history of college football. The “excessive celebration” call that set up LSU’s winning score inside a minute was truly a travesty of justice. In the heat of an SEC battle with the loser on the outside looking in, if the call was not made, there wouldn’t have been one person complaining, but you have outrage that the call was made and the in a world where one loss could mean the difference between a BCS bid and the obscurity bowl, they will be talking about this for a while. 

In the marquis game of the week with old school feel, the Canes’ and Sooners locked up and since Bosworth and Kosar were on opposite sides of the ball was there that much attention paid to the matchup. Miami was kicked out of the frat the previous week after a bad loss to Va. Tech but is back in the good graces of the pollsters after a another victory over a top 5 school in Oklahoma. After 4 consecutive games against ranked opponents it gets a much easier for the Canes’ and they get an opportunity to pad the w column as well as their stats and by the time the pumpkins have all been carved, Miami should be sitting a BCS position. Meanwhile the word on Bradford is that surgery is still on the table which means he isn’t coming back anytime soon and that spells doom to OK’s bowl hopes with two losses already.

 

Whatever excitement last weeks schedule lacked it is more than made up for this week as there are several huge matchups beginning with #4 Florida traveling to Baton Rouge to take on #4 LSU. The implications of this game are huge, and Tebow’s cracked bonnet only adds to the drama, however the truth is that both teams know that even if they lose they’re not out of the running the way things are shaping up this year. Firstly, they have a good chance of catchin’ up with each other again in the SEC Championship game, it would be better to lose NOW then later on in the year where voters would not want to see an immediate rematch of the SEC Champ Game in the BCS title game. So although it may seem like do or die on Saturday, it will be far from over.

We begin our upset watch games in the same conference with a huge matchup as #3 Bama travels to #20 Ole Miss. The Rebels and their faithful felt the sentenced they received for a tough SEC loss was way too severe and  now must climb the Mt. Everest (AP Poll) for the second time this season. The home crowd, which makes Miss tough to beat at home (handed the Gators their only loss in 08) will be waiting for the ‘Tide come Saturday and Bama had better be ready or they will be the next to ask to leave the frat house. Also on upset watch are #15 Oklahoma State who travel to A & M to take on the Aggies with the infamous 12^th man. No on really knows how good the Aggies are which makes this game a tough one to call. The last school that needs to mind it’s P’s & Qs are the #12 Hawkeyes even though they’re at home, the Michigan spread my cause problems for them if they can hit a couple of big plays and get up early. Who do you think will come out on top in the two SEC battles? Will any of the upset watch teams lose? Who should be on upset watch? Let us know here and in the other NCAA Football quick links.   

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Pollsters administer swift and austere justice 

The AP and USA have come under scrutiny this week on the validity of the pre-season poll as there is no true data other than returning starters to go on, does it give some schools an unfair advantage and place a “glass ceiling” on others? Well, in order to help balance the scales the polls have been greatly rewarding the risk takers and subsequently handing down stiff penalties for those that disappoint. The most notable movers this week were:

 

Ole Miss – Sentenced to the equivalent of the “Death Penalty”, as they get hammered 17 places in the AP to 21 after a tough SEC road loss to the Ol’ Ball Coach. Why their drop is so significant in relation to others is because of the tough road they’ll face with their SEC schedule. No doubt they’ll taste defeat again and the hopes of a 2-loss team climbing that many places to get back to BCS status is remote.

 

California – No East Coast bias here, Cal gets the same sentence and drops 18 spots from 6 to 24 after getting smoked in Eugene. This sentence is even worse than that handed down to Ole’ Miss because the Pac-10 doesn’t provide the quality wins that a SEC schedule would so Cal can’t climb all the way back even if they run the table.

 

Penn St. – Actually, a light sentence for being found guilty of a home loss to an unranked opponent, but they’re actually not out of the picture at 15 (11 spot drop) as they should run the table in a weak Big-10 with their shot at Ohio St. and a BCS game on the horizon. What has fallen off the radar is a NCG reservation.

 

Miami – the pollsters giveth and taketh away, as the benefactors of a nostalgic gravitational pull towards matchups of Orange Bowls past the ‘Canes went from obscurity to top ten with a bullet (and a Fla. St. dropped pass) only to have the slipper get smashed in Blacksburgh. However now Miami is justly ranked and should be able to win the ACC but they’ll have to put up a good showing at home against OU next week to be in contention for a BCS bid.

 

Florida State – It’s hard to tell where this pendulum will stop with this team as they osculate from a tough home loss to a Miami team that turned out to be better than expected to upsetting a BYU team that many thought was BCS bound, to getting kicked out of the top 25, and justifiably so, after a terrible home loss to USF, and it’s wasn’t the University of San Francisco.

 

Did the crime justify the punishment for these schools or was it too “Jack McCoy”? Let us know here and in the NCAA chat rooms and team rooms.

Or Post your opinion on the blogs here.

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Upset dog rears its head and shakes up the top 10

 

There is always one Saturday in every college football season where the dogs come out and bark and shake up the entire BCS. This was not quite that severe but it may be a harbinger of things to come this season. Each week it’s looking like this will be a year where the BCS is comprised of teams with multiple losses. The top biscuit this week was USC, that we felt was susceptible to getting knocked off as they were suffering from ‘Bradford disease’ with Barkely sitting out due to a shoulder injury, but in retrospect it was the multiple turnovers that were at the crux of USC’s 16-13 loss to Washington. Another in the long line of SC defeats to non-ranked Pac-10 teams. The loss sent the Trojans on the fast track out of the top 10 and now they have an Everest to climb if they have any hopes of getting to the NCG. Another biscuit for the dogs was BYU, also mentioned in our upset probables, because of the huge difference in team speed. It was apparent from the beginning that it was substantial as the Noles’ got up quick on the Cougars and never let them back in the game. A huge win for Bowden and a serious blow for BYU who just had to hold serve and they were this year’s UTAH ( a mid-major holding down a BCS spot), but they were penalized severely for their insubordination and sentenced to hard labor in Siberia at number 19. Georgia Tech and Utah were the last morsals for the dogs this week as GT lost to a Miami team that now does not look like so much of an upset, but Utah was shipped out of the top 25 as Oregon got up big then held the Utes off in the 4^th quarter for a big home win to help them recover from the opening day debacle against Boise State. Did the penalties fit the crimes or were the upset losers penalized too heavily? Moreover, will the teams that lose late suffer the same fate or does a late season loss cost less/more? Can you REALLY see the BCS keeping Florida out of the BCS if they lose the SEC Championship game? Let us know here and in the individual team rooms or chat rooms.

________________________________________________________________________ Several schools on upset watch this weekend

Although most of the schools are still in their non-conference “cupcake” mode there are couple of big names that need to avoid looking ahead, dealing with injuries, or walking into a buzzsaw. First and foremost Cal had better watch out for a very enthusiastic crowd waiting for them at the new home of the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Although ranked number 8 and at two-touchdown favorite, Cal really hasn’t been tested on the road and the GG’s may put a scare into them before if not win it on the field. Also on upset watch and this may sound strange to college football historians, but BYU had better watch out for Florida State. One of the last remaining obstacles that stand in the way of the cougars and a date with the BCS the Noles’ hae a lot of team speed that could create a problem for BYU if they start breaking off big plays or getting huge YACs. Some teams really need to keep their eye on the injury bug like LA schools. USC who managed to get one good drive when they needed it and escaped from the Horseshoe with a huge win, will not have the services of their “grown up freshman” quarterback Barkely, who miss the game because of the shoulder injury suffered against OSU. Washington is a tough place to play to begin with and they’ll be fired up and waited for the hated division rival from So. Cal. UCLA also had a QB that passed his litmus test then was lost to injury. Although at home, a Kansas State team that plays good D should easily scheme for the Bruins who will surely see a lot of 8-man box defense may have problems getting into the end zone. Who do you think is the most susceptible to an upset? Let us know here and in all of the quick links:

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Is the SEC ‘all that’?

Although it would be almost impossible for any conference to live up the self-imposed hype, you would think SEC would get out of shoot with convincing victories during the non-conference ‘cupcake’ period. The top team in the nation, Florida has taken care of business against virtual division II schools by a combined score of 118-9, Alabama possibly has had the most difficult non-conference game in their opener, and looked good in their glorified scrimmage. However, the rest of the SEC has struggled beginning with Georgia, who was considered last year’s snub, who lost to then #5 Big-12 Oklahoma St, but they proved to be not ready for prime time in a home loss to unranked Houston. Tennessee loses at home to UCLA, who is not expected to finish in the top half of  the Pac-10. Number 7 LSU is 2-0 but has hardly looked like a top ten school as they have struggled against the likes of 08 non-bowl participants Washington and Vandy. Lastly, South Carolina and the Head Ball Coach look like they’re playing for .500 and a bowl game. Is the SEC the tough division they were made out to be? Let us know here and in the chat rooms and team rooms.

 

AP Poll is out with no major surprises 

The first of what promises to be a year full of controversial AP Polls hi the presses with the consensus number one pick, Florida taking the top spot. The following five were also predictable yet debatable, as they have only shuffled the deck from the final poll from last year. Texas, OK, SC, Bama and Ohio St, with Utah getting typical WAC respect as they finished the year at #2 yet start this year at #19. There’s not much soap box activity with the pre-season poll because as long as your within the top 12-15 you gotta’ shot at making the NCG. If you’re not on the board right now chances are you should start considering reservations to San Diego and the Holiday Bowl as that’s about as high as you’re gonna’ get with the non-conference schedule some have lined up, and you’ll need some upsets to climb the ladder. Ohio State is there again at number 6, and come September when they host USC, will either vindicate that respect or be shipped to Siberia. Some welcome ‘newcomers’ to the exclusive top-10 club are Ol’ Miss and Ok State (their highest pre-season ranking ever, even when they had Barry), and an old face in Penn St. The second 10 is all pretty much guessing at this point and that’s where we’ll see the most movement once they kick things off. Who is getting too much respect and who is not getting enough? Let us know your thoughts here or any of the quick links  

 

 

SEC building a resume to back up the hype

As the most useless two weeks of the college football season came to a close with the final ‘media day’, where everyone states their case why things are going to be different his year, as the alumni, students, and residents of the area, all drink the cool-aid and feel like they’ll be one of the lucky teams playing in late January. At least until they lose in week one. Among those is the “purgatory conference” that is somewhere between the NCAA and NFL, the SEC. Rest assured they let you know how good they think they are every year and every year the rest of the nation screams about the bias. True, no one markets themselves better than the SEC, as the rest of the nation battle for TV time and therefore advertising dollars. Well, bias or not, they’re starting to build a list of qualifications that is worthy of such praise, and this year stacks up to be no different. In fact since 2003 the SEC has won 4 of the 6 championships played. Grant it, only two teams have won(LSU,FLA) but as a percentage that’s still a feather in their cap. Now before we get all of the angry post from around the nation, look to see what your conference has done to see if a retort is necessary (in alphabetical order so don’t take it personal)

 

ACC – Record in nonconference games 170-71 (70%)

 

Record in BCS Bowls: 1-4 Record in Bowl Games 18-22 (45%)

 

National Titles: 0. 1st round draft selections 35

 

Big-12 – Record in nonconference games 191-68 (73%)

 

Record in BCS bowls 3-2 Record in Bowl Games 21-17 (55%)

 

National Titles: 1. 1st round draft selections 20

 

Big East – Record in nonconference games 146-68 (68%)

 

Record in BCS Bowls 1-2, Record in Bowl Games 15-10 (60%)

 

National Titles: 0. 1st round draft selections 8

 

Big 10 - Record in nonconference games 178-70 (72%)

 

Record in BCS Bowls 2-7, Record in Bowl Games 12-23 (48%)

 

National Titles: 0. 1st round draft selections 26

 

Pac 10 – Record in nonconference games 116-64 (64%)

 

Record in BCS Bowls 4-1, Record in Bowl Games 18-9 (67%)

 

National Titles: 1. 1st round draft selections 18

SEC – Record in nonconference games 200-64 (75%)

 

Record in BCS Bowls 6-2, Record in Bowl Games 25-15 (63%)

 

National Titles: 3. 1st round draft selections 39

 

Who do you think is the best most consistent conference ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, strength of schedule, non-conference schedule, top to bottom competition, overall talent? Let us know here and in the NCAA chat rooms and team rooms.