Was it a roll of the dice or fear?

 

Now that the dust has settled and we’ve had an opportunity to hear both sides of the argument, analyze endless statistics such as; the Patriots 4^th down completion percentage vs. the Colts (74.8%) as opposed to the percentage of times opponents had gained the necessary 4^th down yardage against the Colts (60%), we’ve decided to refer to an older formula to resolve the argument weather Bill’s decision was the right one. Ours may date back to the 14^th century but if Bill would have followed it the Pats would probably be 7-2, a half game behind the Colts (tie-breaker) and in front of the Begals, Broncos, and Chargers for the best record and home field throughout. Occam’s Razor states that "entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity" or loosely translates to the “simplest explanation is usually the best one”. The genius simply out thought himself this time and made a situation way  more complicated than it needed to be. Peyton and the Colts scored on their last two possessions true, however that was with no time constraints and a full array of the playbook, including set-up plays at their disposal. It’s quite a different animal when you have to complete the task inside 2 minutes and travel 60-70 yards in the process. Instead Bill opted not to trust his defense, and put the game in the hands of the top offense in the league. Ok, make your argument about the status of the Colt D with their injuries, but then again Brady didn’t even throw at one of the rookie corners. Or retort with the percentage argument, but I’ll ‘trump’ you by pointing out that if you don’t make the first down the game is surely over, and therefore you get one play to make where Peyton would have to string together at lest 4 or 5 without a mistake. Bottom line is the ‘rule of thumb’ is a there for a reason, because all things being equal (Cēterīs paribus if you want to stay in the 14th century) the Pats would have been better off punting the ball and forcing a tired Colt offense to string together a last second drive against the 14^th ranked defense. But then again what do we know, as we’re just simple minded spectators that sometimes come up with a solution is the best one. What do you think about Bill’s decision? Let us know here and in the Patriots/Colt chat room or quick links.

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NFL mid-season report

 

On the brink of the second half of the NFL season we wanted to take stalk on where the season has been and where it’s headed. 

Biggest surprise Denver Broncos – We realize they’ve lost two games in a row, but even with that said, who would have thought the Broncos would be in first place in the AFC west with a game lead, and a victory over two division opponents? Of course things can change but right now it’s looking like the Broncos got the better end of the deal with Chicago, in their off-season quarterback exchange. Even more surprising than Orton’s performance has been the Bronco D, which has only allowed 13.8 points per game. The Broncos still have another game with the bolts, plus games with the G-men, Colts, and Eagles in the second half so nothing will come easy. 

Biggest disappointment Tennessee Titans – Hard to believe this team was 13-3 last year with home court throughout. Not only did they take a first game exit, but they will not even make it back to the playoffs this year. QB controversy is among the problem list in the Music City. After an executive management intervention Vince Young took the helm and led them to their first victory of the season. Now he has to regain the trust of his teammates and coaching staff to prove that he’s worthy of the first pick, that fat contract, and can lead them into the future. Three upcoming games with the Bills, Texans, and Cards could make the season respectable. 

Co-MVPs Peyton Manning and Drew Breese – You can’t lean one way or the other on this one as both Qs have lead their teams to 8-0 records and in position to clinch home field throughout the playoffs. Both have put up Pro-Bowl numbers, Peyton is 221-313, for 2535 and 16 TDs, while Drew is 181-265, for 2336 and 17 TDs. However if Peyton can manage to keep the Colts on top of the AFC you would have to swing the MVP vote his way because of the gauntlet of a schedule they face. The marquis game this week with the 3-time Super Bowl MVP Brady, then with matchups with the Ravens, Texans (they always play the Colts tough), Broncos, and Jets. On the other hand the Saints have a legitimate shot to run the gauntlet and go unbeaten. Their two major hurdles New England and Dallas are in the Dome, the rest are with sub-500 teams and can easily be won. Truth be told, if  DB can complete the 16 game feat hand him the hardware after where that franchise has been.

Casper the Ghost award for being transparent Terrell Owens – I can’t remember when someone has come to a team with so more hype and turned out to be all sizzle and no steak. Although he wasn’t expected to turn the franchise around, it was anticipated that he would improve the offense but they’re actually worse this year, and TO stats? 23 reps for 231 yards and 1 TD, not a misprint, he’s not even the top receiver on the team let alone a top receiver in the league.  

 

Who is your biggest surprise, disappointment, and MVP? Let us know here and in any of the quick links:

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Is the bi-polar nature of the NFL becoming a problem?

As a entity that tries to pay attention to all aspects of the football spectrum, from stats to betting lines, and one thing that jumps out is the discrepancy between the top and bottom teams this year. In previous years, when you saw a 14-point plus line it was cause for trepidation and fear of a ‘bear trap’, but this year the dogs just aren’t barking and there’s no harbinger that shows that they won’t continue to be tamed. Last week alone three favs laid over two touchdowns and covered easily (Pat, Colts, Packers) and the Jets proved to be a steal at -10. Approaching the mid-way point in the season and still no “Dog Day Afternoon” where the battered and beaten rise up against the powerful. Unfortunately for dog lovers and the NFL in general it appears that for the first time in years there is a real continental divide between the best and the worst, the gap is substantial, and widening faster than a California fault line. Speaking of California, one of the culprits are the Raiders, whose management is so bad there is talk of having Al ‘Don’ Davis ruled incompetent. Sticking with bad management, the Redskins have proven that money can not buy happiness, as they still have not mastered the art of currency exchange, while trying to convert US Dollars to US wins. Ironically, these are not the most critical patients. 20% of the league has one or no wins, making for a ton of games that no one wants to see either because there’s nothing at steak or the inevitable blowout like last weekend. This is something the league has to consider any time the subject of salary cap comes up as although it’s not an 162 game season, you’ve already got games being blacked out and teams eliminated from playoff contention and we haven’t even handed out candy or cut the turkey yet. And if you support one the afore mentioned clubs, you may be entitled to a 50% refund on your NFL Sunday Ticket because it may not be used come November. Is the good/bad situation in the NFL serious? Can you see some of the bad teams making their season respectable? Let us know here and in any of the quick links. 

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Will the real contenders please stand up? 

This far this year we’ve had plenty of story lines to keep things more than interesting and it actually started in the pre-season with the JC drama out of Denver and into Chi-Town (and now with a contract extension!), but now it’s time for the real contenders to step up and take their respective divisions and put the pretenders to bed. Please note this warning does not hold true for the following teams: New Orleans, Minnesota, Indianapolis, and Denver, yes Denver. All of the afore mentioned clubs have beaten everyone they’ve put in front of them and as we approach the mid-way point in the season look like they deserve to host one and perhaps two games. But we’ve talked about them before. This is about any team that with a blemish or two on their record but wants to play with the big boys, starting with the defending World Champion Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2), tied for first and winners of 3 straight, but the upcoming stretch of Vikings, Broncos, Bengals will truly show if they are ready to step up to the “Steel City” teams of the 70’s and compete for back to back rings. Thus far they have been inconsistent and have not been able to put teams away once they’ve had them down.  New England Patriots (4-2), we still don’t think you’re all the way back and a 59-0 drubbing over a winless team with a banged up secondary doesn’t change anything. The Pats have lost two of their three biggest test this year with (Jets, Broncos, and Ravens) but have another one coming up with the Colts in a game that used to decide home field for the AFC Championship in the past, but right now the Pats haven’t shown the consistency to be in the same class as the unbeaten Colts. Atlanta Falcons (5-1) if they didn’t have to deal with the Saints they would be screaming about a trip to Florida come February, but unfortunately New Orleans does reside in the same division and is currently unbeaten, but don’t worry Black Bird fans as your chance to pull the mutiny will come soon enough in two weeks as long as you don’t get caught looking ahead. Lastly, the Jets are now 3-3, Sanchez has come back down to earth (5 picks in his last start) and the Jet-Mets have no where to turn for sports as they can’t watch baseball either. If Sanchez is not have a come-to-earth experience then teams have begun to scheme for him and he’d better start looking defenders off and mixing things up or he will soon suffer ‘pine disease’ like his predecessor Matt Leinart.

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It’s time to eat like a man and give credit where credit is due 

We would like to take this opportunity to formally apologize to the Denver Broncos for calling them the worst 4-0 team in history, not just because they won a tough overtime game against a good team, but because they have shown a pattern of doing so, and that’s what good teams do. Starting the with “immaculate deflection”, to “Marshall’s Miracle”, and ending with “D-day” when they shut out the high powered New England offense in the second half leading to a 20-17 victory, vindication of the student over the mastermind, an undefeated 5-0 record, and ‘crow ala king’ for various pundits across the NFL including us. It may seem like last year’s news but a month and a half ago, the city of Denver was ready to burn the Josh ‘McDaniels, “the Patriot infiltrator”, at the stake, after letting pro-bowler Jay Cutler go to Chicago in “Pau-Gasol like” fashion not seeming to get anything in return, then citing Brandon Marshall for conduct detrimental and threatening to keep him on the pine. However, 6 weeks later, the Broncos are 5-0 for the first time in 11 years, they have 10 productive rookies on their 40-man roster, and have shown copious amounts of intestinal fortitude in the final minutes of games to steal victories in situations that Shanny let slip away over the past 3 years. Ok, apology accepted? Now it’s time for the cynic to rear his ugly head. Let’s not forget this is a team that has not been 2 games over .500 since 2005, Kyle Orton is 16^th in passing percentage (Denver is 15^th overall), and they have a BRUTAL schedule up coming where 5 of their next 6 opponents have winning records (SD, Pitt, Bal, NYG) and four teams are ranked in the top 10 defensively ( Pitt, Bal, Wash, NYG). I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’ it’s not beyond the realm possibility that they could be 5-5 come Thanksgiving. We’re not predicting this, but it we wouldn’t be surprised. I guess we were still hungry because we’ve put ourselves in line for a second helping. 

When do you think the Bronco’s ride will finally end? What do you think their record will be at the end of the season? Let us know here and in any of the quick links:

 

Let us know here and in the individual chat rooms and team rooms.

Also let us know your thoughts on the NFL blog.

 

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Injuries could play major role in NFL weekend matchups

 

Pats at Broncos – A (3-1) vs (4-0) match up with the undefeated home team as a 3-point dog. This game has been pegged as the “mentor vs. the master” as Josh and Bill lock horns for the first time, but the truth is that each team knows what the other is going to try to do, therefore it’ll comes back to who can execute. In that regard, the Broncos not having the services of Correll Buckhalter will make a difference. On the other side of the ball the Pats WILL have the services of Jerrod Mayo making their defense even better on top of the fact that they broke in to the 10 in the league last week. Pats win on the road.

 

Fortunately for some of the majors riddled by injuries should be able to give them a rest.

 

Colts at Titans – Bob Sanders is doubtful for the Colt’s matchup with the winless Titans who are desperate to get their first win of the season. The Colts get a break as the Titans still have/and will continue to have quarterback issues and the lack of consistency at that position will be the difference in this one. Colts win, but closer than you think.

 

Steelers at Lions – The World Champions lose one starter on each side of the ball as TP is doubtful for the defense and Parker is out for the offense. The good news, their playing the worst team in football over the past two years, the Lions. Regardless of where this game is played the Steelers will still have enough to outscore the Lions by 1 and get the victory. A fat line of 10.5 may be another story though. Steelers by 7.

 

Cowboys at Chiefs – No Roy Williams could end up to be a bigger factor than most people think as Tony Ro’mantic’ has been struggling to find receivers when it counts. The pressures is mounting game by game and he needs a breakout Sunday to get him off the hot seat. Winless teams are always dangerous particularly at home. We’re going off the board and taking the ‘Chefs’ as our upset special.

 

Oakland at Giants – Eli is a “game time decision” but in all probability he’s not going to play so the GMen will be going with David Carr (who is not a bad back-up) going up against the Raiders backup Jamarcus Russell (who should be a back-up) so I’ll that matchup all day. Giants rest Eli, stay unbeaten, an get ready for stretch that includes the Saints and Eagles.

 

 

Unbeatens look to hit the crucial 4-0 milepost

 

Historically over 80% of the teams that have started the season 4-0 have reached the post season. That is the dangling carrot in front of the seven remaining unbeaten teams but a couple have a shot not only getting to 4-0 but well beyond. Teams in the best position:

 

NY Giants – Actually the GMen will go to 5-0 before they’re tested. A nice draw with the weakest division in football as their counter division (AFC West) will help them throughout the year, and the next two weeks are a prime example, as they are hosting the 'Chefs', going to the Raiders, prior to their litmus test with Saints.

 

Indy Colts – Have a golden opportunity to take pole position in the race for the best record in the NFL and home field throughout. Indy’s next 3 games are against teams with a combined record of 1-8 (Seahawks, Titans, Rams) although desperate, not enough talent to hang with Peyton & Co. look for them to be 6-0 and looking down at the rest of the AFC.

 

Shifting gears the toughest road over the next three games, Ravens next three games are with teams with a combined record of 7-2 (Pats, Bengals, and Vikes) with 2 of them on the road, the defense has been carrying the load for the Baltimore for years but they’ll need a balanced attack if they want to get to 6-0.

 

Along the same lines are the Saints who will take on the “Boardwalk and Parkplace” of the NFL as they hit the big apple to face the Giants and Jets then if there is anything left, they’ll try to avoid a letdown when they face the Dolphins.

 

The Jets and Vikings could do worse than their schedules but the Vikings will play in the highly watched football game in the history of Monday Night Football in the first ever “Favre Bowl” even thought the game is at home it’ll be no picnic. If the J-E-T-S can get by New Orleans then they get the weakest end of their division with the Bills and Fins. If the rookie Sanchez can hold it together NYJ will be -4 under par at the turn and looking to close out the East.

 

Ok, Denver is 3-0 but I don’t think anyone reading this believes they will be after next week. In fact they will at best be 4-2 and probably 3-3 after dates with the CaBoys, Pats, and Bolts. Then the rookie coach finds out how the other half lives. Who do you think will be the last undefeated team standing? Let us know here and in any of live chat rooms or team rooms. Also check out the quick links to get all the info you need of the NFL weekend.

 

 

 

Top seeds find the change of seasons not to their liking

Last year Tennessee started the season 10-0 and there was talk of a perfect season, they ended the season 13-3. This year they begin the season 0-2 and the talk is all about the percentages of making the playoffs when you drop your first 2 games. Collins may have had his swan song last year but over the last 3 games (playoffs included) it looks like the Titan Offense in not fooling anybody. Then there’s the Chargers, now famous for the dubious honor of being the only .500 team that won both a division and playoff game. LT’s out with injury, again, they were the benefactor of a terrible booth review or they would also be 0-2. The favorites in Vegas to win the AFC (New England/Pittsburgh) have hit stumbling blocks en route to the Championship game as they may not even be the best teams in their respective divisions. The Pats, formerly known for an offense that could not be tamed, failed to score a touchdown in their loss in New York. The Jets mind you, will be the best team in the division if rookie QB Mark Sanchez continues to show improvement. Meanwhile the kicking game cost Pittsburgh a win at Chi-town and now the Steelers are also 1-1 on the young season, but now that the Ravens have some O, to go with their D, are they the heir apparent?  The only change is in the NFC where it could be the 80’s re-visited, as the last time the NFC list of division leaders read this way, Duran Duran was the number one band in country, Joe Montana, was leading the Niners to their first Super Bowl victory, and Parcels had put together the meanest defense in the league behind Lawrence Taylor. The 49’ers, Giants, Vikings, and Falcons sit atop their respective divisions all with drama stores that had skeptics questioning them in the off season. The Niners’ had, and continue to battle with Crabtree, the Vikings were trying to sign and get Favre to come to practice, the Falcons did not convince anyone they had moved back to the playoff level they were with Vick at the helm, and Giants couldn’t turn on a tv, radio, or computer without hearing about Plax’s legal issues. Now we’ll see how they handle some positive press. Who is the biggest disapointment of the early season? Let us know here and in the individual chat rooms and team rooms.

 

Quarterbacks take center stage as the 09/10 season debuts

As far as the NFL is concerned the 09’ summer will be known of the summer for QB controversy as most of the top off-season stories involved the key position and week one did not provide many answers, and perhaps, posed even more questions.

Was signing Brett Favre a good move? – Early returns are positive but it could be fools gold as the Vikings did get the win on the road, BUT it was against a sub-par Browns squad, Brett only had 110 yards passing, and AP carried the load on offense. Grade C

Will Mark Sanchez make a good starting QB? Did he leave too early? – Actually as opposed to his fellow Trojan who struggled when the lights came on in Arizona, Sanchez had a good debut throwing for 272 with 2 TD’s and one Int. On the positive side he proved he can handle the speed of the game and read the coverage. On top of that, he did it on the road against a defense that was coming after him all day. Now if he drops 200 plus on the Pats next week then we’ll crown him as “arrived”. Grade B+

Who will come out better in “wife swap”? Cutler and da Bears won round 1 with a meaningless pre-season game victory, but you have to give round 2 to the Broncos and Orton because at the end of the day it’s Denver who is 1-0. In regards to the Q’s themselves, Orton did what he could not do in Chi-town, “not give the game away” only 243 yards passing but NO PICKS! Cutler, 277 yards and count em’ 4 PICKS. Grades D

How will Tom Brady play after sitting out a year?  Well, you can look at this two ways, from a negative that despite playing in the pre-season the Patriots timing was way off, Brady missed and threw behind open receivers most of the night and severed up a huge pick-6 to give the Bills the lead in a game where points were hard to come by. On the positive side the last 5 minutes looked like he never missed a snap, leading the Pats to two touchdowns, on great passes to win the game in final minute. We’ll have to wait and see how he does against the Jets next week. Grade C

How much will Michael Vick Contribute to the Eagles this year? Well now that question takes on a whole new meaning as McNabb suffered a bruised rib on a cheap shot in the end zone on Sunday. Out for an indefinite time, Philly broke out the ol’ dependable “Volvo Vet” in Jeff Garcia to pass the time until DMac returns. So this question will be answered by week 3 as Philly has immediately activated Vick to give him some snaps in practice. Can you say Wildcat?

 

So most of the QB’s passed but only Sanchez had a Phi Beta performance. For most the jury is still out, and there will be many more tough exams to come. Which QB had the best week 1 performance? 

On the eve of kickoff, did the pre-season offer any insight to who will be playing in Feb 2010?

Well, if you put any validity in the NFL pre-season then you would have to assess that the same familiar faces will be dueling it out for the AFC title and the NFC is up for grabs. Of course that’s a big ‘IF’ as the pre-season has never meant much after the first series of downs, but this year could be the exception as many familiar names that normally have the mysterious ‘hamstring’ or ‘active reserve’ injuries have taken the field and, with something to prove. Names like Brady, Tomlinson, Manning, Vick, and Favre all hit the field with a purpose. The result? Every division winner from last year on their respective division in the pre-season in the AFC en route to sending a message. While in the NFC 3 of the 4 division winners finished dead last, once again sending a message, because those 3 teams that won the pre-season division were not playoff participants last year, including the defending NFC champion Arizona Cardinals who not only failed to even win a contest, but got outscored by 47 points, the largest margin of any team. How important this is great fodder for odds makers and pundits alike but don’t be surprised if it all goes out the window by Tuesday. Does the pre-season many anything? What team showed the most or least over the last month? Let us know here and all of the site quick links, including live chat rooms for every game on the NFL schedule.

 

NFL betting lines…….NFL schedule…..LIVE Chat Rooms for every game on the schedule     

 

NFC North not “black n’blue” any more

The NFC North which Chris Burman coined as the NFL “Norris Division” will not look the same for years to come beginning this year’s crop of quarterbacks. In fact don’t be surprised if Burman is calling it the WAC before long. Starting with the acquisition of the off-season (for the second year in a row) Brett Favre now a Viking coupled with number one draft choice Percy Harvin promises to keep teams from going ‘8-in-the-box’ to stop Adrian Peterson. Suddenly the Vikings have their version of the three amigos. Keeping in the subject of number one picks, Detroit seems to have a winner with Matthew Stafford after years of fruitless top choices. He looks like he can come in and bring an instant aerial attack to Detroit, as he too will be armed with a potent and explosive receiving core. The “bitter ex” soap opera of the off season was the Jay Cutler divorce from Denver as JC now finds himself in ‘Chi Town’ Da Bears may finally an offense to accompany their perennial tough defense. Like everyone else in this division, Chicago believes they now have the components to take them to the show. Lastly, the team that started this whole transformation, the Pack, when they opted for youth and Aaron Rodgers over experience and let Brett walk out the door and to the lights of NYC, well now he’s back and the Sunday night matchup between old flames promises to be messier than an LA divorce, but great for ratings, as it will easily be the highest watched game in the history of ESPN football telecast to this point. It appears all four teams can make an argument for why they’ll be division champs, but that is why the NFC (WAC) won’t be subject of complaints when CBS makes it the network game of the week. Can Favre stay healthy enough to lead Minnesota back to the Bowl? Are they now the team to beat? Is Cutler the missing link for the Bears? Can Rodgers bring back the Pack? How good is the rookie Stafford? Let us know here and in the NFL Chat rooms and Individual Team rooms.

 

NFL Pre-Season officially gets under way as four games are on the slate this week in addition to some interesting storylines.

Vick will be signed to an NFL club by the end of the week – It appears that finally Vick has some straight up people in his corner as Tony Dungy has come up big in recent days vouching for his character. This has made all the difference as MV was given no chance of playing in the NFL two weeks ago and now a roster spot seems imminent. MV will appear on 60 minutes this Sunday in further attempt to illustrate his degree of change. In addition to Vick, Stallworth is awaiting his ‘sentence’ from Roger Goodell who seems to have gotten off easy in regards to jail time (he also has massive community service and an 8 year probation) as when all was said and done he only spent 24 days behind bars as opposed to the 18+months Vick served. As far as people who will actually be PLAYING, Brady will be behind center for the first time in nearly a year as the Pats take the field against the Eagles on Thursday. Officially one month away from the start of the season and there are several teams who have some major decisions to make on will be taking snaps on opening day. Starting with the Vikings who have a major QB riff even now that Favre is not in the mix. Nether Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels has set the world on fire thus far according to reports, but the only true litmus test can against other competition so Thursday may be the first exam. Also in the NFC ‘black n’ blue’ division the Lion’s first round draft choice may not be such an obvious choice to start on opening day as the crafty vet Daunte Culpepper has dropped 30lbs and is playing as well as he has in recent years. Despite the hype and his quick learning curve, it may be wise for Detroit to let the rookie watch the first couple of games from the comfort of the sideline. Speaking of hype, when are the Raiders going to reap any dividends from J-Russ? Tom Cable may be on the hot seat before the weather cools down if Russell doesn’t show vast improvement over the end of last year. After his holdout to start his career, you can’t say the pressure put on Jamarcus isn’t justified and the added pressure may hinder that progress. Are you taking notes Michael Crabtree? Who has the biggest question to be answered at Quarterback? Let us know in the NFL chat rooms, team rooms, and NFL Blog.