Ok, I’m back to do more damage and we’ve finally gotten on the roll we were looking for. We followed up a 3-0 college weekend with a 2-1 day yesterday. Now we working on a 2-1 NFL week last week so let’s get to it. This week is tough because the teams we like to win are laying some huge lumber so we need to be selective and get the most value. One game I really like is the Gmen (-7, buy it down to 6.5). I like the fact that their coming off a loss, that we’ve got a warm weather team playing in terrible conditions, and very late game for them. On the quant side it looks good for the GMen as the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, 5-1 SU in their last 6, NY is  6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home, and lastly the Giants are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games at home. Here is the rest of the stat line:

 

Stat line GMen and Cards
Arizona		TEAM		Giants
22.4		PTS FOR		29.7
18.4		PTS AGNST		19.8
4.0		DIFF.		9.8
280.2		PASS YDS		254.3
57.6		RUSH YDS		147.7
265.2		PASS D		147.3
59.6		RUSH D		110.3
0.4		TO DIFF		-0.7

 

 

Next, I’m going to ask you to get out the chain saw and lay a bunch of lumber with the Colts (-14, buy it to under 2 tds to 13.5). The Lambs are so bad they are like a division I school right now, Freeny is coming back making the to Colt D and entirely different team and even though they’re on the road it’s still in a dome game. The numbers like them as well as Indy is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road, 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road, and 4-1 ATS their last 5 overall. This stat line is all one-sided but here it is just the same:

 

 

Stat line Indy at Rams
INDY		TEAM		Rams
27.4		PTS FOR		9.0
14.2		PTS AGNST		28.2
13.2		DIFF.		-19.2
326.0		PASS YDS		173.8
78.8		RUSH YDS		104.0
192.4		PASS D		252.0
103.2		RUSH D		132.5
-0.4		TO DIFF		0.8

 

 

 

Laslty, I’m going to take the Vikings +6.5 against the Steelers. I know AD is probable and Troy is going to play but that’s a ton of points for a team that turns the ball over as much as Pittsburgh does and that can not seem to close games out this year. What does scare me is a dome team going outside but Favre is pretty well accustomed to bad weather. The numbers tilt the Vikings way as well as they are 4-2 ATS in its last 6, 5-0 SU in its last 5 games, and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road. On the other side Pitt is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Here is the stat line on the Pitt/Minn game:

 

 

Stat line VIk/Steel
Vikings		TEAM		Steelers
31.5		PTS FOR		23.3
20.2		PTS AGNST		18.7
11.3		DIFF.		4.7
223.2		PASS YDS		296.7
125.0		RUSH YDS		107.0
248.3		PASS D		200.7
93.5		RUSH D		74.5
-1.3		TO DIFF		0.7

 

 

 

 

 

Yo, this is Nicky and it may have taken 6 weeks but we finally had our first 3-0 college weekend (we also went 2-1 in the NFL), now the objective is to keep the mo’ going, but as the season gets longer we have the advantage as the surprises should be less frequent. That said, I see some value in 3 of the games on Saturday so let’s get to it. Firstly, I like Texas (-12) at Missouri. Ok, based on records I would take the home dog but when you dig a little deeper you see that Mizzu has only beaten bad teams (Nevada, Furman, Bowling Green) and gotten whacked when they played anyone half decent (Nebraska, Oklahoma St). Also for you quants, Mizzu is 0-5 vs. Texas their last 5 meetings.Here is the stat line:

 

Stat Line Texas vs. Mizzu
TEXAS		TEAM		Missouri
42.0		PTS FOR		29.3
14.7		PTS AGNST		20.3
27.3		DIFF.		9.0
275.0		PASS YDS		283.2
169.5		RUSH YDS		121.8
210.2		PASS D		209.5
37.5		RUSH D		127.3
-0.8		TO DIFF		0.

 

Another game that looks like there is some good value is Arizona(-7 buy the hook if have to) against UCLA. Arizona is a very good home team while UCLA is terrible on the road (2-9 last 11). Moreover Arizona is 6-2 in its last 8 games (5-0 at home), and the Cats are 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing UCLA. UCLA also has that deadly combination of being ranked 101^st in nation in total offense and 79^th against the run on defense. I was surprised this line wasn’t 10 but I’ll take it at a touch and this game makes for a great teaser as well. Here is the stat line:

 

 

Stat line UCLA vs. Zona
UCLA		TEAM		Arizona
21.2		PTS FOR		30.5
21.8		PTS AGNST		26.0
-0.7		DIFF.		4.5
193.7		PASS YDS		259.0
116.7		RUSH YDS		184.7
169.2		PASS D		224.8
151.2		RUSH D		107.3
0.0		TO DIFF		-0.

 

Lastly, I really like Arkansas (+6.5) at Ole Miss. The Rebels look to be a bit of a fraud as they paded their stats with the feeder fish on their schedule ( UAB, Vandy, Southeastern Louisiana) but got smoked in their only two SEC games (SC, Bama) by an average of 26 points. Ole Miss is also 0-5 ATS when playing Arkansas. Meanwhile the Razorbacks keep most games close with the exception of the Alabama game, have covered three straight games and are 14^th in the nation in total scoring offense. Exactly what you want when you’re getting points. Ok, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

_______________________________________________________________________

 

Week 6

 

Ok, we finally had the 3-0 week we’ve been looking for in college as OU, UK and Iowa came through, let’s try to keep the mo’ going in the pros. This is a tough year to navigate through because it’s been a long time since we’ve seen such a disparity between the top teams and the feeder fish. This results in huge lines and tough to find real value. I know the “Pro betters” how’s that for an oxymoron, say that teasers are a sucker bet because of the juice, but if you take a couple of good teams down like Pittsburgh and Philly it makes those lines a lot more reasonable. Anyway, we’re here to discuss the straight bets and here’s where I see value on Sunday. I will take the Chiefs (+6) against the Redskins even though they’re on the road. It is the first time in history that a team has faced a winless team for 6 consecutive weeks, and all they can muster with that weak schedule is 2-3? This game should be -2 tops but 6? Take it and bid it. Here is the stat line if you’re so inclined:

 

 

Stat Line Redskins vs. Chiefs
Kansas City		TEAM		Washington
16.8		PTS FOR		14.6
27.6		PTS AGNST		16.4
-10.8		DIFF.		-1.8
162.4		PASS YDS		205.0
95.6		RUSH YDS		94.8
270.0		PASS D		171.2
132.8		RUSH D		119.6
-0.4		TO DIFF		0.4

 

 

 

I will take the bait, and lay a HUGE number with Pittsburgh (-13.5 buy the .5 point) against the Browns. Anderson and that offense are so bad it’s tough to fathom. After a 2-14 passing day last weekend, I know he’ll get better but going into the Ketchup Kingdom? The Browns could seriously get shut out in this game and I’d be afraid to go the other way. Here’s the stat line:

 

 

Stat Line: Steelers vs. Browns
Cleveland		TEAM		Steelers
11.0		PTS FOR		22.6
24.2		PTS AGNST		19.6
-13.2		DIFF.		3.0
142.2		PASS YDS		275.4
106.2		RUSH YDS		100.4
209.8		PASS D		219.6
170.4		RUSH D		71.2
1.0		TO DIFF		0.8

 

 

In the last game I like the Bengals (-5.5) to beat up the Texans. Houston simply is not a good team this year and the Bengals are a fluke away from being considered one of the best. Blackout or not, they will be tough at home and they know they need to put his game in the win column because of their upcoming schedule. Here’s the stat line, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in ring and keep your gloves up!

 

Statline for Texans vs. Bengals
Texans		TEAM		Bengals
23.0		PTS FOR		20.2
24.0		PTS AGNST		18.0
-1.0		DIFF.		2.2
273.6		PASS YDS		208.8
75.4		RUSH YDS		126.6
222.2		PASS D		228.8
140.8		RUSH D		98.8
-0.2		TO DIFF		0.4

 

_______________________________College Week 6_______________________________

Yo, this is Nicky, and we did ok on the college board last week thanks to Iowa and Washington takin’ care of biznis’ but even though we did the math, we got the wrong answer on Georgia so we’re still in search of a perfect college day so let’s get to it. I normally try to stay out of the mire but I think they’re giving Texas too much credit by asking them to win by more than a field goal, as the Sooners match up with them pretty well statistically. I like OU (+4) as there is more value there. I do believe they can win on the field and the field goal cushion gives us some room for error. 

SMART CHART
OKLA		TEAM		TEXAS
35.0		PTS FOR		47.2
8.4		PTS AGNST		15.0
26.6		DIFF.		32.2
269.2		PASS YDS		304.6
187.8		RUSH YDS		175.0
202.4		PASS D		186.8
53.6		RUSH D		48.2
-1.2		TO DIFF		-0.6

Next we move to the SEC where I like UK as I think 14.5 is way too much for Auburn to cover even at home. Kentucky has proven its no doormat this year, averages over 34 points per game, over 325 yards in offense per game in the SEC, and can play teams close even on the road. Here is the stat line:

 

Stat Line: UK Vs. AUB
Kentucky		TEAM		Auburn
25.2		PTS FOR		38.3
26.8		PTS AGNST		27.2
-1.6		DIFF.		11.2
167.4		PASS YDS		238.0
167.4		RUSH YDS		251.8
177.0		PASS D		204.7
177.8		RUSH D		164.7
0.4		TO DIFF		-1.0

 

Lastly, I’m going back to the well with IOWA (+3) against Wisconsin. I was impressed with the Badgers when the spotlight was on them in a big game (OSU) too many turnovers and against a disciplined team like the Hawkeyes that will kill you. Here’s the stat line to go with it, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

 

Stat Line Iowa vs. Wis
IOWA		TEAM		Wisconsin
25.7		PTS FOR		31.3
15.8		PTS AGNST		25.7
9.8		DIFF.		5.7
232.8		PASS YDS		221.7
130.2		RUSH YDS		200.7
171.0		PASS D		210.3
134.3		RUSH D		122.8
-1.5		TO DIFF		-0.

 

For the previous weeks’ picks please visit the Player’s Club Blog.